What about the future of hybrids?

The year-end rush has long since begun.

Many hope that the dream car they ordered will be delivered in December and that they will receive the full purchase bonus. But while there will only be a slight discount for new electric cars from January, plug-in hybrids will no longer be eligible. 

Interest in electrified vehicles continues unabated. In the month of November, just under 58,000 new electric cars were registered, an increase of 44 percent and a total share of 22.3 percent. Plug-in hybrids, with 44,581 new vehicles and a registration share of over 17 percent, can certainly keep up. Once more, because they are joined by almost the same number of hybrids without a plug. After all, brands like Toyota, Lexus, Honda, Hyundai and Renault continue to offer serial hybrids with good success. After a brief interlude, the German manufacturers have long since left the market for serial hybrids and are focusing solely on electric cars and plug-in hybrids.

 In January, the first step back in terms of subsidy policy will be taken on the German car market. The plug-in hybrids, which are particularly interesting from a tax point of view, were last subsidised with up to 6,750 euros if they were able to cover at least 60 kilometres in pure electric mode.

The question remains how the sales figures will develop, as some foreign countries have shown: when the purchase premiums for hybrid models were reduced or completely abolished, hybrid sales also collapsed. In this respect, potential business customers benefit first and foremost from reduced taxation. Those who use their plug-in hybrids for business purposes still only have to pay tax on half of the purchase price under the one-percent rule.

Serial hybrids, primarily from car manufacturers such as Toyota / Lexus, Renault or Hyundai, have not been eligible for the PHEV purchase premium due to the lack of an electric range. The German car manufacturers, however, are counting on the plug-in hybrids remaining in demand for quite some time, not only in their home country, because the combination of electric range for short distances and the combustion engine for longer journeys fit well with the driving profile of many customers. This sounds like whistling loudly in one's own forest, but it easily belies the real conditions. After all, the new plug-in hybrids have been developed over the past four years in a way that is as complex as it is cost-intensive, and now they have to recoup the money that has been invested in their technology.

 
Yet the new electric vehicles offer hardly any disadvantages due to ever greater ranges, shorter charging times and a growing network of fast-charging stations on motorways and connecting roads. Longer trips at the weekend or the drive to the Easter holiday? With the electric car, this has long been no problem either if the electric range is beyond 400 kilometres and the electric model can refuel at the Hypercharger with 170, 200 kilowatts or more.

The advantage of having one's own photovoltaic system on the roof of one's own house ensures that the plug-in hybrid can be refuelled at home and thus make all journeys in the metropolitan area cost-neutrally is a valid point - but one that also applies to every electric car and even makes it more interesting due to the significantly larger battery.

So it remains to be seen whether, in the end, it was not primarily the 6,750-euro purchase premium and the attractive taxation that tipped the scales in favour of buying a plug-in hybrid for many (company) customers, because then it looks bad for sales from the beginning of 2023. The serial hybrids are hardly affected by the trends because due to the lack of tax incentives, they primarily score with economical real consumption in the city centre and on country roads, availability on the new car market and this will not change due to the new subsidy guidelines.