Europe can get zero-emission trucks on the road faster

Germany and Europe can become completely emission-free for newly sold trucks faster than previously expected.

Neither overall costs nor operational requirements are an obstacle to the market ramp-up, it says. This is according to a study prepared by the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) on behalf of the German think tank Agora Verkehrswende and the European non-governmental organisation Transport & Environment (T&E).

According to the study, battery-electric trucks are expected to be cheaper than diesel trucks in 99.6 per cent of all applications in the total cost calculation as early as 2030 and to meet the same requirements for range, running time and payload. This applies to all new vehicles in road freight transport and, with minor differences, to all EU countries as well as the United Kingdom.

For this reason, Agora Verkehrswende recommends that the EU fleet limits for CO2 emissions from new trucks be significantly tightened already for the period up to 2030 and, if possible, reduced to zero for 2035. Synthetic fuels (e-fuels) and biofuels should not be able to count towards the limits. Diesel trucks would then no longer be registered in the EU from 2035.

"Based on this study, policymakers can accelerate the pace of climate protection in road freight transport with a clear conscience," finds Wiebke Zimmer, deputy director of Agora Verkehrswende. In the transport sector, progress towards climate neutrality is not as fast as it needs to be in many places. "It is therefore important that policymakers not only aim for the 100 per cent target for 2035 but also set more ambitious intermediate steps for the market ramp-up. This paves the way for the rapid expansion of zero-emission truck production. The German government should lobby for this in the EU."

As part of its Green Deal strategy, the European Commission plans to present a new proposal for CO2 fleet limits for trucks in the coming months. So far, CO2 emissions for newly registered vehicles are to be 15 per cent lower from 2025 than in the comparable years 2019 and 2020; and 30 per cent lower from 2030.

Based on its study, Agora Verkehrswende advocates bringing forward the 30 per cent target to 2027 and setting a 65 per cent reduction for 2030. Without these targets, the German climate goal of one-third of vehicle kilometres in heavy goods transport being electric or electricity-based by 2030 could hardly be achieved.

The study examined the technical and economic potential for zero-emission trucks in the EU countries and the United Kingdom by 2040. The background is discussions in politics and industry about how quickly the costs and performance of battery-electric and fuel-cell trucks will be comparable with diesel trucks. The study took into account medium and heavy trucks as used in urban traffic, regional delivery traffic and long-distance traffic.

For the calculation of the total costs, the costs for depreciation, energy, maintenance, infrastructure and road use were taken into account. The cost advantage of battery trucks applies despite their higher purchase price for the foreseeable future and even in scenarios in which the assumptions for the development of the prices for batteries, diesel fuel and electricity are set less favourably for battery electric trucks. Due to their lower overall costs, battery trucks would also be suitable for most long-distance journeys. With a range of 400 to 500 kilometres per battery charge, they could easily cover daily ranges of 800 kilometres with a 45-minute charge stop during the legally required rest break.

According to the study's calculations, the total costs of fuel cell trucks will remain higher than those of diesel trucks. This is true even if the costs for hydrogen and fuel cells are set low. Fuel cell trucks are therefore only an emission-free alternative to battery trucks in special cases, for example when particularly long ranges are required.